Welcome to Mr. Bitter's Profile Page

@The Champ 

This draft is giving me 2018 vibes when it comes to the O-linemen. If you project Mauigoa strictly as a guard, he's a clean, plug-n-play bulldozer with All-Pro upside, much like Quenton Nelson in '18, when he was the first O-lineman off the board at 1.6. Freeling is like Kolton Miller, the late-rising LT specimen drafted at 1.15. 

I could see the Browns taking Mauigoa at 1.6 as the foundational piece for the O-line rebuild (even if he's just a guard), then Freeling popping off from 1.10 to 1.13.

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

Just one whiff ATS so far this weekend, and -of course - it was my lone money game. (Thanks, Eagles. Jesus.) I'm with Walt tonight and like PIT to win SU. 

I know PIT should have lost to BAL. I know about Anderson and Hunter screaming off the EDGE. I know about Stingley and Lassiter at the boundaries. The thing is - and as Walt described - the PIT offense will be attacking the HOU LBs and safeties with quick shots to Gainwell and the TEs...and the HOU LBs and safeties can be had in coverage. (Especially To'oTo'o, a miserable coverage LB.) 

I'm not sold on the Texans, and this is a spot (home dogs, MNF, getting disrespected a lil' bit-type game) where PIT traditionally cashes. Unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will drag HOU into a low-scoring brawl in which the Steelers and their formidable front seven will gain confidence by the minute. PIT by a Boswell FG.

PIT 20 HOU 17 

@WFDevTeam

You know your team well.

Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.

All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy. 

Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense. 

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.

Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.

Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

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Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.

All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy. 

Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense. 

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.

Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.

Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

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@WFDevTeam 

Speaking of trends...C.J Stroud in the cold and PIT's MNF record are more reason to think the Steelers might win SU. Trends are flimsy, but unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will only gain confidence as long as the game is close.

Arthur Smith has Rodgers getting rid of the ball and out to the RBs and TEs so quickly that it might mitigate the damage Anderson/Hunter can do. 

The AFC is wide open and there needs to be a feel-good, playoff narrative...why not old man Rodgers making one last playoff run?

Flu is apparently making its way through the NE locker room.

Any Super Bowl predictions?

@WFDevTeam 

The Darnell Washington injury is big. His blocking was crucial to the run game and the passing offense was leaning on him more by the week. But who knows...maybe Freiermuth emerges from exile with a big game.

BAL by a FG feels exactly right, but I worry about Lamar. We keep waiting for the Lamar we all know to show up and it hasn't happened all year. Non-bet for me. 

@iEatCrayons 

JAX O-line is banged up. I dunno...I can see the Colts keeping it close.

@WFDevTeam 

Yeah, there's a reason Vegas stays in business. Luckily, I had no interest in betting HOU/LAC. Post-Xmas funds, tight lines and all the backup QBs have me taking it easy this week.

Only large play is CAR +7, but apparently Tet McMillan woke up with the flu and is now questionable, so that may be a no-go. Some cabbage on CIN -7.5. All logic says CIN scores at will, but I can't shake the feeling Trey McBride gets three TDs and ARI finds the back door. My fantasy league team is in the championship with Burrow, Chase Brown and Chase starting, so I'm going all in on the Bengals. Small play on TEN as home dogs, too. 

Sniffed around PIT -3 (win-and-in), but I think it's priced perfectly and can see CLE relishing the spoiler role. Garrett may go nuclear, while PIT is very banged up and without Metcalf. I don't like that CLE offense without Judkins though.

@iEatCrayons 

Yeah, I'm probably overthinking this. The Jags are in a lather. Think I'm still reeling from the wallet-draining bet I made on SEA/IND, where I assumed Rivers would lay an egg. That loss was more about me underestimating the flat spot for SEA than anything Rivers did though.

It's looking like the Colts could be without Raimann along with Bortolini. This might be the week Rivers gives us the turnover/sack fest I anticipated vs. SEA. Rivers will need to get it out quick, so I expect Josh Downs to have a productive day in the slot. (Garbage time/no Jourdan Lewis)

@iEatCrayons 

Was sniffing around JAX, but the injuries in their secondary have me hesitant. Rivers has been more competent than I anticipated.

CIN feels like a clean play. There's always a chance Brissett/McBride go nuclear and we see a full-on shoot-out including the back door, but ARI's depth chart is just so decimated. The Cardinals may have already checked out.

TEN +3

The Raiders are destined to bat leadoff in the '26 NFL Draft, meaning both the Giants and Titans will win one of their remaining games. NYG will beat LV next week, while TEN will beat KC straight up today.

I know that TEN sucks, but KC is staggered right now. The O-line is in tatters, they have no running game, and the only viable passing targets for Minshew are (bust?) Xavier Worthy and the ghost of Travis Kelce. Key injuries are peppered along the KC defensive depth chart. TEN 20 KC 17

@Billl2021 

The thing is, Sam never shows up in big games.

@Baird 

I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be.

SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land. 

Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway.

For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number.  

@Baird 

I feel confident that SEA will blow out IND. Rivers is starting, which is comically desperate. Coming out of a five-year retirement, he gets to face the best D in the NFL in a potential monsoon and without RT Braden Smith. There may be so many IND turnovers, SEA may cover even if not fully focused. I just have visions of that SEA D running fumbles and INTs into the EZ throughout the game.

Early Games:

PIT +3  CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU. 

BAL -13.5  Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.  

DET -13.5  Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.

NE -7.5  Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.

TEN +12.5  Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.

MIN +6.5  Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.

IND +3.5  The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.

Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU. 

Happy hunting fellas.

NE -13  Walt handicapped this one pretty thoroughly, and I'm going big on the Pats. Now that the Jets have dinged their draft positioning with that predictable, fluky win vs. CLE, they'll get their asses handed to them by NE. Without Garrett Wilson, this isn't a fair fight. But will NE be focused? In Vrabel I trust.

Expect another huge game from TreVeyon Henderson vs. NY's saloon-door D-line. Henderson is perfectly situated for a dominant three-game run vs. NYJ, CIN and NYG.

@42yardline 

Giants fans are spoiled rotten compared to us Jets fans. Our only comfort is watching SB III on Youtube.

I'm interested to see how the Giants play for Kafka. I've always liked him as an assistant. Maybe NY has stumbled upon a decent HC.

@Baird 

Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.

You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.

@Baird 

This is shaping up to be the weekend of the backup RB.

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

@SadisticNobility 

Assuming the Ravens get Lamar Jackson and a handful of other key players back from injury following their bye, they're set up for a run that might put them on PIT's tail. BAL might come out of their post-bye CHI, MIA, MIN, CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, CIN schedule run 7-7 and in contention. 

@Walt

You're going to grow old waiting for Matt Milano to play at 100%. Might be washed.

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

@Baird 

MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.

One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.

@Baird 

Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North.

@Baird 

Doug Williams vs. Jim Zorn!

@42yardline 

The old Costanza method.

@Jasonwbantle 

Wentz and Mason are probably upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones. Darrisaw may play. Meanwhile, CIN will likely be without Shemar Stewart, Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner.

@Baird 

Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old.  

NE +2.5  There's a better chance that Mike McDaniel will be DET's OC in '26 than MIA's HC, and everyone knows it. MIA is a mentally and physically soft team that may have already tapped out. For me, MIA is an AUTO FADE until I see reason for them not to be.

I have my question's about Drake Maye and worry about NE's secondary, but as long as the Pats employ TreVeyon Henderson as RB1 - I'm guessing they will - they should win SU.

NYG +6  If Russell Wilson's Week One performance rolls over to Week 2 - which it easily could behind that Andrew Thomasless O-line and "force-feed Malik Nabers" scheme - then the Dart Era might arrive before halftime. I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but preseason Dart looked like an immediate upgrade from Wilson, and could easily spark the Giants to (at least) a backdoor cover. I'm assuming a lot here, but no risk it, no biscuit.

Note: I don't trust Guyton and Steele vs. Carter and Burns.

@Karensman 

The Gridiron Uniform Database constantly updates uniform matchups as uni announcements are released. Has all the historic uniforms, too. Fun little site.

Why, oh why, won't the Lions wear those sweet silver pants??

GL Karensman

LARGE

SEA +1.5  McCaffrey is washed. Trent Williams may be too, and the rest of the O-line is mediocre save for RG Puni. Defensively, the days of Armstead, Buckner, Hargrove, Greenlaw and Hufanga are over; the depth chart is now Bosa, Warner and a bunch of question marks. The SF STs are putrid. Until SF is valued correctly, they're an auto-fade for me. SEA wins SU.

CIN -5.5  Narrative changer. CIN will jump out 14-0 before CLE knows what's happening. CLE might hang around a bit as Flacco attacks CIN's weak LBs and Ss with a healthy dose of Njoku, but CIN pulls away in the 2nd half behind Chase Brown and some Flacco TOs.

MODERATE

DET +2  Until GB proves they can beat the big boys, I gotta fade them vs. the big boys. Lost amid the Parsons talk is the fact that DET returns Hutchinson (along with about half their defensive starters). Toss into the mix a battered GB WR corps and QUESTIONABLE Nate Hobbs, and I like the fully healthy Lions to quiet the "new coordinators" talk with a divisional road win. &lt;/p>

SMALL</strong>

TB -1  As long as Vea plays, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches. I anticipate the ATL O-line without Dalman and McGrady will be more problematic than anticipated. (Penix's pressure/no pressure splits were alarming last year.) TB should be able to establish Bucky Irving vs. a weak ATL DT group. WR2 Darnell Mooney (3 TDs vs. TB last season) trending OUT doesn't help ATL's cause. 

DEN -8.5  I'm not sure if we've seen TEN fully bottom out yet. (I'm not sold on Cam Ward.) When you're talking about the addition of LT Dan Moore like it's a good thing, you're f*cking low, man.

BAL -1  Running game and defense travels, especially early-season. I don't trust the BUF defense to contain MVP snub-motivated Lamar Jackson, who will toss 3 TDs and rush for one more.

NON-BET

NYG +6

IND -1

CAR +3.5

NE -2.5

NYJ +3

LAR -3

CHI +1

Happy hunting, gentlemen.rong><;/strong>;

@Baird

And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams. 

@Baird 

RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up?

Notes:

SEA will win SU.

Agree on MIA. House of cards ready to collapse.

Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.

@j_oliver_23 

Good stuff. Also: Like everyone, I worry about the DET interior O-line, but it's not as if GB has a game-wrecking DT. With Kenny Clark traded, the GB interior DL may be as big of a question as the DET interior OL.

You've gotta get Nyck Harbor in the 1st round. Freak athlete that will melt brains at the Combine.

Agree on the Lions. Last year was their year.

To add to their list of issues: Still no viable EDGE threat opposite Hutchinson. Marcus Davenport is an injury waiting to happen.

DAL/PHI  I'm worried about the backdoor cover, too. Not because the DAL offense is a juggernaut, but because the PHI defense is green after losing veteran leaders Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham and Oren Burks.

Youngsters like Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, Kelee Ringo, Sydney Brown are talented, but are going from rotational pieces to starters. Jihaad Campbell, Azeez Ojulari, Josh Uche and Andrew Mukuba are nice additions, but may not be fully acclimated to Fangio's scheme. This defense will look different and there could be a vulnerable transition period.

Interested to see if the loss of Mekhi Becton dings the PHI rushing attack. Becton was a bulldozer for the Eagles last season. Tyler Steen has never graded well as a starter. Landon Dickerson is also banged up to start the season.

Underrated factor: PHI's greatest defensive strength (interior pressure/Jalen Carter) could be subdued a bit by DAL's strong interior O-line.

It also feels like DAL is usually at their best when the least is expected of them.

PHI 31 DAL 24

@Osmodiar 

Agree on Allar. Not a 1st round prospect.

@Osmodiar 

Not sure about that. NO is a directionless organization and the pressure of following in Archie's footsteps isn't necessarily a positive.