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I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

I don't think the Seahawks will trade D.K. Metcalf, but if they do, I'm all over that if I'm the Jaguars. JAX should trade pick 2.36 to SEA for Metcalf, then draft Ashton Jeanty at 1.05. Along with Brian Thomas Jr., that's instant explosive offense.

Remaining QB carousel predictions:

Sam Darnold - SEA, Justin Fields - PIT, Russell Wilson - NYG

TEN drafts Cam Ward for themselves.

My Jets go into the draft with bridge/mentor Tyrod Taylor at the top of the QB depth chart. Because they're the Jets, they draft Sanders at 1.07. If they pass on Sanders at 1.07, then...

After taking Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter at 1.02, CLE trades up into the mid/late-1st for a sliding Shedeur Sanders (if the Jets don't take him at 1.07). If the Jets do select Sanders, then the Browns take Jaxson Dart at 2.33 or Quinn Ewers in the 3rd round. The team that doesn't draft Sanders acquires Kirk Cousins post-draft. bada-bing, bada-boom.

Pre-FA Top 15

1. TEN - Cam Ward QB Miami

I'm not buying the TEN/NYG trade talk. It makes no sense for TEN. The Titans don't have a QB and won't find a better option than Ward through trade or free agency, so why wouldn't they just draft him for themselves?

Also: TEN has recently spent a lot of resources on the CB position. With Harold Landry freshly cut and Arden Key another cap casualty waiting to happen, EDGE is a screaming need for TEN, meaning they could prefer Carter over Hunter at 1.03. Basically, Ward and Carter are the prospects that make the most sense for TEN, and dropping down to 1.03 could easily mean missing out on both.

2. CLE - Abdul Carter EDGE Penn State

BPA that would perfectly complement Myles Garrett. I'll be keeping my eye on Carter's medicals.

3. NYG - Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado

The Giants aren't just bad - they're boring. They need a CB1 AND an injection of star power/big-play excitement. (The Giants had a pathetic 5 total INTs in 2024.) This feels like Hunter's floor.

4. NE - Will Campbell OT LSU

The Pats have ample cap space to address their league-worst OT depth chart, but free agency options like Cam Robinson, Dan Moore Jr. and the ghost of Tyron Smith are very uninspiring.

I know, I know...Will Campbell's alligator arms/zero percentile wingspan would seemingly eliminate him from the discussion at 1.04 for NE. I just have a hunch the Pats may still like him.

We already knew Campbell's length was an issue going into the Combine. (Just like we already knew that Nick Emmanwori was an athletic freak before the Combine.) Campbell's slide (and Emmanwori's rise into the 7-13 range) in post-Combine mock drafts feels like we might be falling into the trap of counting twice. NFL evaluators will go back to the film. 

Campbell's length is no doubt concerning, but his advanced technique mostly keeps EDGEs out of his chest, and when he does give ground, he has the (Combine-verified) elite-level athleticism to easily recover. 

Let's have some perspective: There's something to be said for being a consensus All-American 3-year SEC starter at LT - regularly facing lengthy, NFL EDGE prospects - and only giving up 2 sacks and 5 QB hits. Campbell has a literal whisker less length than Jake Matthews, who has carved out a rock-solid decade-long NFL career on the blindside. I think the film might convince Vrabel and company that Campbell could do the same.

5. JAX - Ashton Jeanty RB Boise State

It's rare that a team drafting in the top-5 has promising youngsters at every premium position (QB/WR1/OT/EDGE/CB1). The Jags are in position to go pure BPA here. That's Jeanty, who is pound-for-pound the best and cleanest prospect in this draft. 

Priority One for the new JAX braintrust is to ensure a proper return on the Trevor Lawrence investment. I highly doubt that the presence of Travis Etienne - a trade candidate that was already being phased out late last season - and Tank Bigsby - a 3rd-round grinder drafted by a failed regime - will dissuade them from selecting a Faulk/Tomlinson/Barkley-level upgrade that would instantly give the offense identity and serve as Lawrence's best friend.

6. LV - Jahdae Barron CB Texas

The current Raiders DB depth chart is nothing but tumbleweeds. Free agency could obviously change that, but for now, Barron - a versatile, absolute DOG that I think could make a Devon Witherspoon-type rise up draft boards - makes sense here.

7. NYJ - Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado

There's chatter that the Jets could be zeroing in on Justin Fields, which conflicts with earlier reports that they were good with going into next season with Tyrod Taylor as a bridge to a rookie QB. I'm guessing - with Geno Smith now in Vegas and Sam Darnold looking like he's on his way to Seattle - that PIT will bring back Fields. (They almost have to.) Should that domino fall, the Taylor/rookie QB scenario becomes highly likely for the Jets.

I don't buy the Sanders hype for a scroll of reasons and think the growing buzz of a slide into the late-1st/early-2nd has legs, but it only takes one (bad) organization to squint hard enough to see Sanders as a potential franchise QB. I have a sinking feeling it'll be my Jets.

New Jets OC Tanner Engstrand comes over from DET, where a juggernaut offense was built around "point guard" QB Jared Goff, so Sanders' skill set would be a good fit in theory.

8. CAR - Mike Green EDGE Marshall

Carolina generated a league-worst 25.5% pressure rate last season. D.J. Wonnum is in the last year of his deal and Jadeveon Clowney is a potential cap casualty.

I get young Khalil Mack vibes from Mike Green. Easy EDGE2 for me and a top-10 value, but I will adjust accordingly depending on what I hear about Green's alleged character concerns.

9. NO - Will Johnson CB Michigan

I was dumb enough to think that the Saints might finally commit to a proper rebuild this offseason, but the restructuring of Derek Carr's contract and Mickey Loomis' comments about being active in free agency likely means another year of fiscal can-kicking, a mediocre record and bringing back Taysom Hill on a reworked contract so that he can continue tormenting me in DFS contests. NFL purgatory.

Whether it's jumping on a prospect perceived to be "falling" (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Bryan Bresee...even going back to Andrus Peat) or overdrafting an "upside" prospect (Trevor Penning, Payton Turner, Cesar Ruiz, Marcus Davenport), Loomis seems forever on the lookout for the potential steal. Getting Will Johnson with any pick after 1.06 could easily be a steal, IMO.

The Saints would probably like to re-sign both Chase Young and Paulson Adebo, but will likely only be able to afford one. I'm guessing that Adebo walks, so there could be a need at boundary corner come Draft Day. No workouts has Johnson stumbling toward the finish line of the predraft process, but the tape shows a plug-n-play CB with Pro Bowl upside when healthy.

10. CHI - Jalon Walker LB Georgia

I anticipate Ryan Poles will continue aggressively checking off "immediate need" boxes during free agency. Expect the Bears to be in on Cs Drew Dalman and Ryan Kelly, and Trey Hendrickson or Chase Young to fill the EDGE void opposite Montez Sweat. (Jadeveon Clowney at the very least.) Poles clearly wants to be in position to let the draft come to him on Day One.

I think that Jalon Walker could go as high as 1.06 and doesn't get out of the top-16, but his size/skill set makes finding the best schematic match tricky. The Nolan Smith comps are a little off, IMO. Walker is cut more from the Zack Baun mold; a do-everything off-ball LB. It just so happens that new CHI DC Dennis Allen's Fangio-related scheme features a "Zack Baun" LB role, making Walker a seamless fit.

I know that a glance at the CHI depth chart would make you think that the Bears are set at LB with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, but I don't think Edmunds' price/performance jive, and Edwards (the better player) is nearly 30 and in the final year of his deal. Walker better fits the new scheme and would proactively address what could easily be a need in 2026.

11. SF - Armand Membou OT/G Missouri

12. DAL - Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M

13. MIA - Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

14. IND - Colston Loveland TE Michigan

15. (TRADE) DEN - Tyler Warren TE Penn State

@The Champ 

Absolutely. Golden's playoff domination, fluid route-running and easy separation had him in the WR1 conversation even before he ran a 4.29 at the Combine. I don't see how he gets past WR-needy teams in the 20s like PIT, GB and HOU at this point. At worst.

Loveland is only 20 with All-Pro upside. First round lock. Could be ahead of Warren on some boards and I wouldn't be shocked if he went in the 7 to 10 range.

I'm seriously beginning to wonder about Ward and Sanders going in the top-5.

Lance Zierlein just released his prospect grades for Combine participants. I know that his word isn't gospel and that he has tweaked his grading a bit recently, but his grades are usually solidly predictive of a prospect's draft range. He gave Ward 6.39 and Sanders 6.30 - Ward's grade is the same as Bo Nix and Sanders' grade is Desmond Ridder/Malik Willis-level. I get that there's a QB tax on draft day, but top-5 for 6.3ish graded prospects is a serious reach.

@Cwillyrun1 

Unfortunately, I think the Jets will have interest in Cousins. There's already talk that they want a veteran, with Cousins at the top of the list and Fields a darkhorse. Cousins makes sense financially and schematically. Looks like another season of good defense/lousy offense, 5 to 8 wins and no playoffs. It just never ends.

Starting to think the Raiders will sign Darnold the second they have the opportunity. They have cap space to burn and neither Brady or Carroll are "rebuild"-type guys. Your TEN/Darnold idea has legs too, depending on how they feel about Ward/Sanders.

A trade for Carr appears to be the most logical move for the Steelers.

Russell Wilson to the Colts.

Still like Fields to the Giants.

Cousins to the Jets or Browns...starting to lean more toward the Jets.

@Cwillyrun1 

The Titans signing Darnold is an intriguing scenario and not being talked about enough, probably because most assume TEN will just draft a QB 1st overall. That's why I'm eager to see what they do in free agency - pursuing Darnold could indicate pro scouts don't rate Ward/Sanders as highly as the media. We'll see. The Titans have a new GM so their approach to this offseason may not be the same as the last.

I think the "generational prospect" stuff was largely thrown out there by TEN to keep teams guessing as to what they'll do at #1. (Same reason they're talking up Will Levis when they know he sucks.) Teams at #1 do this every draft season. Carter and Hunter are blue chips, but I don't know about generational. They're not quite Micah Parsons and Champ Bailey, IMO.

I just read a report that the Steelers reached out to the Jaguars to inquire about a potential trade for Trevor Lawrence. That's obviously not going to happen, but kinda reaffirms my guess that PIT wants to make a big move at QB, whether it be Darnold, a trade for Derek Carr or an out-of-leftfield trade for Kyler Murray or something. Winning Super Bowls is the standard in PIT, and now they're overshadowed in their own state by the Eagles. A lateral move for Kirk Cousins or something is not going to cut it.

I agree with you on George Pickens. If I'm the Steelers, I'm trading him this offseason. That's not a guy you want to make a long-term investment in, especially for WR1 money. I'd rather get a Day Two pick for Pickens, sign Amari Cooper and draft Egbuka or Golden than wait another season for Pickens to grow up.

I don't think the Jets will trade Garrett Wilson. He's all we currently have in the WR room, and it's rumored that Wilson gave the Jets a "It's him or me" ultimatum regarding Aaron Rodgers. Wilson obviously won that battle. (Not that the Jets probably needed much urging.) We also have only $14 M effective cap space and have to start thinking about new contracts for Sauce, Garrett, AV-T, JJ II, so it's not like we can get in on the Tee Higgins bidding.

@The Champ 

I can't see Rodgers going to a rebuilding team or accepting anything less than a starting role. He should probably just retire before he has to do his podcasts in a wheelchair.

@WFDevTeam 

You just want Rodgers behind that Giants O-line so Vic Fangio can unleash hell on him twice a year.

@WFDevTeam 

Do you mean "cursed"? C'mon man, I'm trying not to think that way. I know you root for the green team that has its sh*t together like no other, but you don't have to rub it in.

But seriously, I think The Champ is right about Rodgers. I don't see why any team would want him at this point beyond name recognition.

Yeah, the Jets suck at developing QBs, but the Rodgers situation was different. There's no development with a 41-year old future HOFer - everything was set up to his liking so he could hit the ground running. The problem is - while Rodgers will probably be able to spin a pretty ball and dissect a defense in a nanosecond until he's 70 - he can't move at all anymore. He's a sitting duck back there and that isn't going to get better at his age. No mobility=non-starter in the modern game.

I don't think he has value as a bridge QB, either. The ego is too big and the game just always came too easily for him. The best bridge QBs/mentors are always humble, marginally talented vets like Jacoby Brissett for a reason. What advice is Rodgers going to give a young QB? "Hey man, forget about minicamp - what you need to do is hang out in the desert and do stupid hippie sh*t"

@Cwillyrun1 

Chip Kelly seems relatively adaptable as far as working with different styles of QB. (He's had success with Michael Vick, Nick Foles and every style in between.) But you're right - Kelly would likely prefer a QB with better mobility and ability to layer the middle of the field than Wilson. Gonna rethink that one. Wilson to the Colts, maybe?

I've heard the stories about Wilson sabotaging Carroll in SEA. I've also heard that they've since mended fences. Truth might be somewhere in the middle. Not sure. All I know for sure is that - so far - Tom Brady's hires seem more "big name" than guys that would be best for an earnest rebuilding job, which is what the Raiders really need. The Raiders are the current betting favorites to sign Darnold, and it makes perfect sense...another splash signing not best for the long term.

Christ, I pray you're wrong about NYJ/Wilson. I don't see it. The Jets have an all-time bridge QB in Tyrod Taylor that the locker room loves.

@Cwillyrun1 

The Steelers absolutely can afford to sign Darnold. You predict TEN will sign Darnold, yet TEN ($44 M) currently has only $3 million more in cap space than PIT ($41 M), and less effective cap space than PIT. PIT will likely cut Larry Ogunjobi, Preston Smith and Cole Holcomb - freeing up another $27 million.

Also: I doubt that keeping Najee Harris around will be a top priority for PIT. He's a committee backfield grinder getting by on 1st round pedigree. PIT could easily find one of those to compliment Warren on the cheap.

@Barnowl1952 

I'm a Jets fan, so I feel your pain. You're talking to a guy who watches Super Bowl III* - a game played well before I was born - at least once a year just to remind myself that "it's possible".

All of CLE's current problems are ripple effect from the decision to go with Watson over Mayfield. Just a catastrophic move. Again, I feel your pain. The Jets put all their eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket while Geno Smith and Sam Darnold go to Pro Bowls.

I hope for your sake that Garrett is just venting frustration - maybe as a loud-and-clear message to CLE management to turn things around ASAP - because Watson's contract makes a proper rebuild nearly impossible. Besides, Berry and Stefanski won't survive a rebuild. I'm guessing Garrett stays and CLE signs Kirk Cousins, but I could be wrong.

* - Super Bowl III was probably rigged and Matt Snell was easily MVP.

Saquan Barkley and Jalen Carter have been the best offensive and defensive players this postseason. They're both in a lather. However, I could see Mahomes and Chris Jones stepping up to remind everyone that they're still the best at their respective positions. As another commenter said: It's a toss up.

As with any toss up game, I'm looking for that one weakness that tips the scales. Some are predicting that the inexperience of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be that exploitable weakness, but Vic Fangio consistently puts them in the best positions for success and both have performed like Pro Bowl vets all season. I don't see why that would stop now.

The Eagles are the more balanced team. There are no glaring weaknesses to exploit. I'm guessing that KC's ineffective run game and iffy O-line catches up to them. (Specifically the gross Carter vs. Caliendo mismatch and the not-exactly-nimble OT duo of Joe Thuney/Jawaan Taylor vs. the speed and bend of Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith.)

PHI 23 KC 21

No way I'm betting this game, as I could be underestimating Reid/Mahome's three-peat motivation. There's also the possibility that penalties/turnovers go KC's way and the game ends with a Kelce walk-off TD, immediately followed by his retirement announcement and proposal to Taylor Swift. (I'm only half-kidding.)

GL to those taking the plunge.

@jhrjhr5 

TEN will be playing in a $2.1 billion, publicly-paid new stadium in a few seasons. Will Levis or a retread like Darnold/Cousins/Wilson/Rodgers aren't going to put butts in those seats. They've gotta get their franchise QB and build hope for the future.

WAS +6  Gut call here. All logic says PHI easily controls the trenches, and Carter and Barkley dominate in an easy Eagles victory...but WAS has been proving me wrong all season. Also, I don't fully trust Sirianni/Hurts in this spot. WAS comes up one miracle short of the SB but cover. PHI 31 WAS 26

KC -2  Good-guy Josh Allen finally beating the villainous Chiefs is a solid narrative, but there is no more profitable narrative than KC in the SB a win away from a three-peat. Big game from Xavier Worthy, and Mahomes outperforms Allen. KC 27 BUF 23

No bets. Just gonna sit back and enjoy. GL to all.

@Barnowl1952 

What is Cleveland's option? Kirk Cousins?? The Browns have to keep swinging until they connect on a QB. Otherwise, they'll just remain in NFL purgatory.

Any drama created by selecting Sanders or Ward would be a walk in the park compared to the drama that was unleashed by the Deshaun Watson acquisition. I mean, this is the Jimmy Haslam Browns we're talking about.

@Baird 

Death are great. Keep On Knocking is a gem. Death...Stooges...MC5...Bob Seger System...lotta good stuff was coming outta Motown back in the day.

I always found it surprising that it was McCartney - and not Lennon - who wrote Helter Skelter. John seemed the more piss 'n' vinegar-type of the two. Helter Skelter was quite the departure for Paul; most of his tunes had that crooner, even vaudevillian vibe. Still, I think Helter Skelter's sound is more heavy than punk.

For me, the earliest and most obvious foreshadowing to the late '70s punk sound and spirit was My Generation ('65). Aggressive, super-loud, super-simple riff...manic drumming...snotty, kinda nihilistic lyrics...even purposely stuttering vocals to add another layer of offensiveness.

@Demondlee1906@gmail.com 

Good points here. Middle-of-the-field coverage is a weakness for BUF, especially if Rapp can't go. Bernard, Milano and D. Williams all have PFF coverage grades below 40.0 and the safety position is a problem.

BAL is my only bet this weekend, but I have a nagging feeling I'm leaving $$ on the table by laying off HOU.

Hate this matchup for the Chiefs. Three-peat pressure, while HOU is playing with house money. The HOU defense is running hot, and the state of the KC O-line is giving me SB 55 vibes.

Thuney starting at LT seems more an indictment of D.J. Humphries than absolute confidence in Thuney. Even when playing LT, Thuney plays like a guard - immediate engagement and getting up in those pads, with little traditional kickstep action to be seen. Great guard, but he needs help on the edge. Anderson and Hunter could be a serious problem for Mahomes.

Another serious problem is Mike Caliendo at LG. He sucks. Just makes me even less confident in a KC run game that has looked meh anyway. (Pacheco is not right. Maybe the extended layoff helps him?) Especially against a HOU run defense that is #2 in adjusted line yards and top-10 when Fatukasi and Al-Shaair are healthy.

That said, KC is at home in 20 degree conditions vs. a dome team. With Jaylen Watson back the KC defense could pitch a shutout.

For those less afraid than me and are betting HOU, I salute you. GL to all.

"I like both Buffalo outside receivers against Baltimore's crappy cornerbacks"

I get that this statement is likely more double-down and feather-ruffling than anything else at this point, but - again - it's wrong.

If you want to say that Brandon Stephens is crappy, fair enough. Stephens has allowed nearly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs in coverage. He cannot get his head around on deep shots for the life of him. What I wanna know is this: Do you think Nate Wiggins is crappy? If so, you haven't payed attention since roughly midseason.

BAL's rising defensive EPA and #1 EPA vs. the pass since Week 11 despite Stephens' struggles is largely due to a pronounced increase in top-end help from Kyle Hamilton on Stephens' side to mitigate damage. Why has BAL been able to employ this tactic? Because Nate Wiggins is emerging as a lockdown boundary corner on the other side.

Following some very normal early-rookie season hiccups and some yanking in and out of the lineup, Wiggins has fully blossomed since mideason.

• Wiggins has been thrown at 67 times, and has allowed a 59.7 passer rating.
• Since Week 12, Wiggins has settled in as a 90% snap share starter after typically playing 30-60% in the early season.
• Wiggins' TD allowed last week vs. PIT was his first of the season. He has as many TD scored as TD allowed.
• Wiggins is #1 in the NFL in target separation allowed, #5 in catch rate allowed, #6 in passer rating allowed, and #16 in pass breakups.
• Wiggins hasn't allowed more than 3 catches or 49 yards since Week 13, despite games where he shadowed A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers and Nico Collins.

If you want to say something along the lines of "Wiggins' inexperience is bound to catch up to him in the postseason", I could kinda buy that. But to say he's currently a crappy CB is objectively wrong.

@lewseyrich 

Eh, it's still a great site. 90% of other sites have a team of prognosticators; Walt has been flying solo on handicapping for two decades. It's impressive if only for the endurance.

Walt's picks are usually solid and he's often out ahead of a lot of angles many other prognosticators miss. He's just lost in the labyrinth of Group A/Group B minutiae right now and has a stubborn blind spot with the Ravens. (These spells are bound to happen when a guy is basically in the midst of a cruel, two decade long, one-man sociology experiment.) His CFB picks have been money in the bank this season, and Charlie Campbell's annual NFL Draft content/predictions are eerily accurate.

Being active in comment sections (beyond just jumping in one time to get your kicks in after a bad bet) is part of supporting a site, and I would like to think I fold a few substantial angles into my weekly dross, as do other core commentors. Hell, we've been trying to get through to Walt about the terrible blunder he's making with Baltimore with stats and angles for weeks...and we do it before the games start.

"...Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping..."

(Mentally read that part with a kinda gay lisp...Sorry, couldn't help it.)

Thanks, but I don't think I could possibly spend any more time handicapping. Getting okay at it, too. Went summer vacation money-heavy on BAL and LAR last week. Feels good.

@WFDevTeam 

It's all in good fun. Even the best prognosticators are lucky to turn a profit ATS. Walt has put his thoughts and predictions on every game out there for like two decades, knowing there will be whiffs and ensuing ridicule. That takes balls. What really irritates me are the pile-jumpers that never engage beforehand but are always there to call out when someone is wrong after the fact. Like, if you can do better then let's hear it, Jimmy the Greek.

@broncoselway 

You just reveal your own ignorance.

PIT was the right side. It was a bad beat. BAL's win had nothing to do with being at home, being more talented at every position, being better-coached or having a historically brutalizing ground game that had PIT LBs and DBs literally running away from contact and crushed what remained of PIT's spirit before halftime.

If you knew anything about football, you'd know that the rules state that if you go for it on 4th-down, you get to switch QBs with the opposing team. If PIT would have gone for it on 4th-down at their own 29-yard line in the 2nd quarter instead of stupidly punting it away, Lamar Jackson would have become PIT's QB, and the defense would have suddenly been able to stop Derrick Henry from running at will. So you see, it's not that BAL was the better team - the Steelers just screwed themselves with that decision.

The Jenna Jameson Effect also came into play in this game. I wouldn't Google it at work, but let's just say it has something to do with teams being more comfortable on top than behind. You see, PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team, so it's not that BAL was better than PIT, it's just that the Ravens wouldn't stop scoring points and let PIT get in their comfort zone. There was no way to see this coming, except for the facts that PIT had scored zero 1st-quarter points in their last 5 playoff games and BAL is the much, much better team. But I would like to think it had more to do with my bad luck and that God hates me. Also, I had the flu and was tired from staying up with the kids.

You're probably stupid enough to think the overrated Ravens and their practice squad secondary have any chance vs. the Bills next week. Sure, BAL ran for 271 yards and beat BUF 35-10 earlier in the season, but Jupiter wasn't aligned with Mars so DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver were distracted.

@DoctorJ 

Hey, that hurts. I thumbed-up your comment. I was just busting balls with the crazy thing.

Like I said - unreliable. 1 catch for zero yards vs. the Bengals. Just ask any Steelers fan what they think of George Pickens.

The last 17 double-digit playoff home favorites are 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS. They average 33.5 PPG.

Which WR led the NFL with a 77.3% separation rate and has 4 TDs in his last 4 games? Rashod Bateman. Which secondary allows the highest separation rate, the most receiving yards and 7th-most TDs p/game to outside WRs? The Pittsburgh secondary.

Which "washed" TE has a TD in six straight games and has a league-leading average of 2.14 YPRR against single-high coverage? Mark Andrews. Which secondary uses single-high coverage at the highest rate? The Pittsburgh secondary. 

Isaiah Likely averages 1.77 YPRR against single-high coverage and has already went for 7/104/1 vs. PIT this season. Top-graded 3rd-down back Justice Hill and Nelson Agholor are back from injury this week. Lamar Jackson is #1 in QB EPA. Derrick Henry is #1 in RB EPA. The BAL O-line is ranked #1 in run and pass blocking, and #2 in Win Block % (DEN #1).

But no Zay Flowers for a week. How will the Ravens possibly score??

@DoctorJ 

Wouldn't count on Freiermuth doing much. In his two games vs. BAL this season, he has a combined 5 catches for 30 yards.

The Steelers have lost 5 straight playoff games with their opponents scoring an average of 40.4 PPG.

They've been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of those games.

The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in over a month.

The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 11 of the past 14 weeks.

Mentioned often: Steelers have won 8 of last 10 vs. BAL.

Not mentioned as often: Lamar Jackson was unavailable for 6 of those 10 games.

Per PFF, 138 CBs have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season.

Cam Sutton is ranked 128th.

Donte Jackson is ranked 132nd.

Of 223 CBs, Joey Porter Jr. (55.0) is PFF's 160th-ranked in overall grade.

Brandon Stephens's PFF grade of 55.8 is the lowest by 15 points in the BAL secondary. (Wiggins 70.7, A. Washington 80.3, Humphrey 81.0, Hamilton 90.1)

Stephens would be the highest graded PIT CB.

But let's talk about BAL's awful secondary.

@woo hoo 

I think Tomlin is a very good coach. He just doesn't have the horses to hang with BAL, regardless of how much his players may like him. These are two teams going in opposite directions.

No defense can stop the BAL offense right now - Flowers or no Flowers. The '24 BAL offense is 2nd-best EPA all-time behind only the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. BAL is 1st in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, while the defense has been 1st in EPA/pass and #1 in total EPA from weeks 11-18. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL by every metric, and what few early-season weaknesses they had are now strengths.

Tomlin squeezed what he could from Russell Wilson, but we all kinda knew reality would set in as far as that goes. I doubt Wilson will just be able to turn that midseason form back on against a focused BAL team that is peaking in all three phases. Pat Freiermuth isn't enough. There's a reason Tomlin is hinting at getting Justin Fields more involved in this game. The Wilson magic has run it's course and isn't returning.

Pickens is petulant and unreliable. We're talking about a WR1 with more career unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and fumbles than TDs. I seriously think he's more likely to get frustrated and disqualified than get loose in this matchup. The BAL secondary has been throwing blankets on WR1s much better than Pickens since Week 11.

John Harbaugh teams are rarely caught off guard, and I can't see that happening in this spot. Not with the way last season ended vs. KC. The Steelers are likely walking into a buzzsaw, and Vegas knows it.

"Pickens over 55.5 receiving yards...Pickens will bounce back in an easy matchup"

This feels familiar...

From Week 17 picks:

"I believe the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed...Nico Collins over 92.5 receiving yards. Collins is a beast who will be force fed against Baltimore's poor secondary"

Nico Collins was the most expensive player on your DFS contest slate Week 17, which was understandable since he was going up against such an awful secondary. It's not like he was going up against a pass defense that features two All-Pros and has been rated first in the NFL since Week 11 or something.

Final: BAL 31 HOU 2

Nico Collins: 3/59/0

Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route.

Here's what I got on early games:

ATL -7.5 NO BET I was leaning CAR here, as the Panthers have shown periodic spunk under Canales, and the possibility of a blowout in TB could render ATL deflated by the late-3rd quarter. Then I saw CAR's injury report.

With Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn ruled OUT, ATL could easily name their score against CAR's practice squad D. With no Hubbard and injuries on the right side of the O-line, peppering Thielen with a million targets probably won't be enough to keep up. Still, I'm not touching this one.

DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7.

Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO.

WAS has nothing but vague seeding to play for, and avoiding PHI may (wrongly) be of little concern having just defeated them. Parsons vs. that banged-up O-line...no Lattimore (ever?)...I wouldn't be shocked if DAL wins SU.

CHI +10 NO BET As with WAS, I think seeding motivation will be minimal - at best - for GB. On the road and with zero pressure in a meaningless game, my hunch is we finally see Caleb Williams and those WRs do enough damage for the backdoor cover. However, the CHI run defense is such crap that GB's backup RBs could simply control the game start-to-finish. The "but those CHI WRs!/backdoor" logic has burned me all year, so I'm laying off.

JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER  I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable.

Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team.

BUF -3.5 LIGHT  A scroll of angles favor BUF.

• Mayo is a dead man walking in NE. The Pats - looking to finally sever all ties with the Belichick era - will fire him tomorrow, and I'm not even sure if his players like him enough to send him out on a positive note.
• NE currently will be able to auction of the 1st pick in the draft for a boatload of much-needed rebuilding ammo, or simply pick a superstar in Travis Hunter. This has to be baked in.
• Many of BUF's backups are better than the starters the Pats are currently trotting out. A few of those backups (Von Miller, Dawson Knox) will be motivated by hefty contract incentives.
• Ray Davis smash spot. 100% guaranteed.

PHI -2 NO BET  Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY.

From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team.

Still, no bet. Because Malik Nabers. Nabers only needs targets to kill any bet on PHI here, and - motivated by his race with Bowers for those rookie receiving records - he's undoubtedly going to get them.

NO +14  NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER  Pure gut here. Every ounce of pressure is on TB. Given their current RB and interior O-line situation, NO won't even attempt to run vs. Vea and crew. However, I don't trust that banged-up TB secondary - even against Rattler, MV-S, Moreau, etc. - to prevent a backdoor.

TEN -1.5 NO BET  Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass.

The Titans have already defeated HOU at full health back in November, and HOU honestly hasn't been very good since then. With Tony Pollard playing and motivated by nearly $500,000 in very attainable bonuses, TEN feels like the right side.

Happy hunting fellas.

@Baird 

I gave up a while ago on plays of any kind with Harris/Warren. PIT's insistence on feeding Harris so he can not break tackles and plod his way to 3 YPC is baffling.

Also, PIT needs to find a chump team to take Pickens off their hands this offseason. Ultra-talented, but the dude is a poisonous moron.

@petermwb 

Gotta disagree, Jeanty is a stud and one of the few elite prospects in this draft. PSU - who is much more talented than Boise St. to begin with - totally keyed on Jeanty, and Boise was down 14-0 in the blink of an eye. Hard for any RB to thrive in that scenario. Even so, Jeanty still got 100+ and eventually got into a lather, busting runs of 10+, 20+, and contributing as a receiver. He's a 1st-rounder. Feldman Freak List (6.23 strength-to-body weight ratio, squats 600+ lbs, clocked at over 22 MHP in-game). He's bigger/stronger than Jahmyr Gibbs, who went 12th overall.

I'm interested to know the success rate for teams that plan to rotate QBs. Two such scenarios this week (CLE - DR-T/Zappe, TEN - Levis/Rudolph). I can't imagine the record is good - rotating QBs is a clear message to the rest of the team that the organization is directionless.

Speaking of directionless...I wouldn't touch IND right now. There's frustration in that locker room and I fear guys are checking out. The lack of tackling effort vs the Giants was jaw-dropping. Defenders were flat-out jogging during those Nabers TDs.

For those thinking about betting the 49ers, SF is down to their 4th-string LT, LG Aaron Banks is OUT, and RT Colton McKivitz (who sucks anyway) went from LP on THU to DNP on FRI. Here's the likely starting SF O-line vs. the Lions:

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Conversely, the only remaining SF pass-rusher worth a damn (Bosa) will be erased by Penei Sewell. I keep reading about how DET/SF is going to be a highly competitive shootout; I just don't see it. The somehow still overrated Niners are gonna get Jahmyr Gibbsed to death.

For those thinking about betting the 49ers, SF is down to their 4th-string LT, LG Aaron Banks is OUT, and RT Colton McKivitz (who sucks anyway) went from LP on THU to DNP on FRI. Here's the likely starting SF O-line vs. the Lions:

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Conversely, the only remaining SF pass-rusher worth a damn (Bosa) will be erased by Penei Sewell. I keep reading about how DET/SF is going to be a highly competitive shootout; I just don't see it. The somehow still overrated Niners are gonna get Jahmyr Gibbsed to death.

I'd appreciate any angles anyone can offer on DEN/CIN. I'm basically certain that the Chargers TCB @NE, so not only is DEN/CIN crucial to the playoff hopes of the Bengals and Broncos, it's crucial to MIA, IND and SEA (SOS tiebreaker). I feel like I've turned over every stone, yet am still pretty much 50/50 on this one.

Advantage DEN:

• DEN elite scoring defense, pressure rate and sacks ranking. Nick Bonitto (11.5 sacks), Jonathon Cooper (8.0) and Zach Allen (5.0, 33 QB hits) have been quietly excellent and should thrive, especially if Mims can't go and CIN has to throw Cody Ford or Devin Cochran into the fire at RT. Burrow has been effective in avoiding pressure, climbing the pocket, and completing last-moment, rabbit-out-of-the-hat no-look passes and such, but is that sustainable vs. the Broncos?
  
• Chase vs. Surtain. We obviously can't assume any CB will shut down Chase, but if there's a CB physically and stylistically designed to do it, it's Surtain. He's done it before. (Held Chase to 4 targets/1 catch/3 yards in their last matchup.)
• CIN short week/DEN 9-days rest. Extra rest (22-9), off a loss (52-29), following TNF (10-4) and consecutive road games are spots where Payton has historically done well. Just trends, but it's something.
• CIN MUST WIN. You'd think this would be a motivational advantage for CIN, but I think it could easily be a negative in this spot. DEN hasn't clinched, is desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since '15, and can't assume victory vs. KC in Week 18 (even if the KC stars only play a few drives), so it's not as if there's no motivation for the Broncos. CIN has been pretty much in must-win mode for a while now, yet have only answered the bell against bad teams. The bottom line is it feels like CIN is still seen as the team that always digs themselves out of the hole, and the assumption that they will do it again is still being baked into their Vegas pricing. Thing is, this just isn't the same team that pulled it off in recent seasons.  Been there, done that vets like Reader, Hubbard, Wilson, Awuzie, Bates, Mixon, J. Williams, etc, have been replaced in the CIN lineup by downgrades, rookies and 2nd-year guys. Will they step up?
  

ADVANTAGE CIN:

• CIN ranks 29th in success rate vs. RBs, but does DEN have a good RB? Will someone emerge from DEN's kinda icky RBBC to take advantage? If so, DEN wins. The Broncos had a good lather going with the running game vs. the Chargers - building an 11-point lead - then inexplicably abandoned it. That can't happen again because...
• ...DEN can't get roped into a shootout with CIN. The Bengals don't have a CB that can deal with Courtland Sutton - so he's gonna get his numbers - but DEN will need more if the game goes back-and-forth. Marvin Mims and his recent poor man's Deebo Samuel routine doesn't feel like enough. CIN's recent success has been predicated on roping teams with bad QBs (Rush/Levis/DT-R) into shootouts, then letting their bad defense gather the inevitable basket of turnovers. So the most important question in this game is...
• Is Bo Nix that good, really? Since a turnover-heavy patch a few weeks back, Nix has been more efficient recently and put up decent numbers, but the air yards p/attempt have declined. Are the Broncos hiding him? With a gun to my head, I'm thinking the ride ends for CIN today, but I fear a shootout in which Nix is exposed.

PIT +2  Chris Jones is OUT. George Pickens is active. That KC OT situation vs. Watt/Highsmith. Haven't liked what I've seen from Pacheco since he's returned. Liking the UNDER and Steelers to win SU on a Boswell FG. DEN beats CIN on Saturday, then KC clinches HF @DEN Week 18 when Jones and Humphries return.

BAL -6.5  Mixon is fading, HOU interior O-line is a wreck, and BAL is nails vs. the run regardless. The BAL secondary (not poor) will contain last-man-standing Nico Collins. Absences up the middle at all three defensive levels of the HOU defense (Fatukasi/Al-Shaair/Ward) rolls out the red carpet for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Huge game from Jackson tightens the MVP gap with Josh Allen.

GL to all and Merry Xmas gents.

@Baird 

DEN +9 looks comfy. Agree with all of your angles, and I'm just getting the sense that the ride ends here for CIN. No team with a defense that putrid gets a Hollywood ending - they're more likely to get a season-ending, mundane home L that encapsulates everything that was wrong from the beginning.

Also: Courtland Sutton is in a serious smash spot vs. a CIN defense that hemorrhages vs. WR1s. Nix-to-Sutton alone could keep DEN within a score.

(Side note: Hubbard, Rankins, Wilson injury availability could change things, but I'll be surprised if any one of them plays - especially Hubbard.)

To answer your rhetorical question: The Saints bet is very scary. You've definitely got marbles.

Rattler is comically bad. I can kinda see a scenario where the Saints uglify the game with some clock-killing Kendre Miller action, but Miller's complete no-show vs. GB is concerning, as are the injuries to Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy. I get that the Saints were outclassed from the jump @GB and game script was never in Miller's favor, but he just didn't look good at all.

I'm hearing Olave may play. I'd be shocked. So many concussions in a relatively short time...you almost have to shut him down, right?

NO vs. LV is crap vs. crap - so anything is possible - but my gut says it may just be a "team with the best player wins" type-game and Bowers goes nuclear.

@Karensman 

I'm with you on DET/Montgomery. I don't think Walt is giving Montgomery enough credit for what he brings to the Lions. Yeah, the Lions can beat you in many different ways and Montgomery is just a RB, but Sonic and Knuckles running behind that O-line is DET's foundational character. Knuckles is a heart-and-soul guy, and while the Lions are incredibly resilient, I don't think it's safe to assume Craig Reynolds just steps in and seamlessly replaces him.

I also think the "that's just more touches for Jahmyr Gibbs" logic is faulty. Gibbs is obviously more talented/explosive than Montgomery, but he's also a 5-9/195ish RB that punches above his weight with his aggressive running style. He's most effective in bursts, which the Lions obviously know because they prioritized signing Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams as a high-level tag-team partner for Gibbs.

Gibbs may go bonkers today against a CHI front seven that's weak vs. RBs, but I fear increased usage will eventually lead to inefficiency and maybe even Gibb's name being added to DET's scrolling injury list.

CHI +6.5 is the only dog I'm interested in today, and that's only if Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins play. I know the CHI offense has been discombobulated recently, but I just can't ignore that Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. DET CBs mismatch as a backdoor recipe.

Otherwise, I'm just laying the points with ATL and GB this week. I'm all in on the Falcons QB change, and I don't see how NO/GB is anything else but a primetime blowout. GL

The Herbert injury and LA's lack of any real HFA scare me, but this is exactly the type of game recent Chargers editions would lose and Harbaugh was hired to win.

The last time DEN played a team with a decent QB was back on Nov. 10 on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs. DEN lost that game 16-14, and I think we may see a similarly close game tonight.

Neither team can run. Courtland Sutton should get his numbers, but he is DEN's only real weapon. Tarheeb Still has stepped up, so the Hart/Molden injuries aren't terrifying. McConkey could have a big game as he avoids boundary-anchored Surtain, and Hayden Hurst might make an impact fresh off the IR.

LAC 23 DEN 20

Week 15 notes:

• The Detroit Lions will continue their string of bad luck until they do the right thing and wear the silver pants.
• Not buying Aidan Hutchinson returning in time for the Super Bowl. No way. That leg was shattered and wrapped around like the snake around the tree in a Garden of Eden painting.
• That Pat Surtain injury looms large. The Broncos are going to blow this, aren't they?

Tyler Warren in the 3rd RD is nuts. Probable top-25 pick, high-2nd RD floor.

Where is Josh Simmons? Easy to forget because of the injury, but might be the only pure OT prospect worthy of top-15 consideration in this draft. (Campbell and Banks profile as guards.)

Can't see Jihaad Campbell still on the board mid-2nd RD. Absolute monster.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

@Baird 

This seems like a gift. Could easily be the type of game script where Henry and Hill feast for 3 quarters and even Keaton Mitchell gets in there in the 4th quarter and gets 15 yards and a TD.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

@Baird 

Hey, don't give DET too much credit. It was Eberflus that beat CHI by 3.

I'm with Walt. BUF wins SU.

@Karensman 

I don't think you're mistaken. Walt's assessment of CIN/DAL is pretty spot-on. The Bengals just aren't a good team.

That opening CIN -6 line is nuts to me. The only explanations I can think of are:

DAL has been complete dogsh*t at home vs. any team with a pulse this season, or...

...Vegas anticipates a "pride" performance from CIN (which I might buy if CIN hadn't been so flat when it actually mattered and Zac Taylor wasn't such an ineffective HC), or...

...Vegas thinks bettors might ignore all the factors that make DAL the right side and boil it all down to "Burrow is so much better than Rush".

Pissed-off Burrow going nuclear while Rush lays an egg is definitely on the table, but Burrow has been going nuclear all season and the Bengals still lose. Like Walt said - CIN has almost nothing positive going on beyond Burrow/Chase/Higgins, while a lot of positive stuff is going on for DAL right now relative to their record. DAL will probably have Diggs and Bland back at CB...Orlando Brown Jr. is DOUBTFUL just as Parsons is getting into a lather...Lamb staying positive and gutting it out...Brandin Cooks coming back...Jake Ferguson coming back just as Logan Wilson goes on IR...DeMarvion Overshown emerging as a stud...hell, even Mazi Smith has been grading out well lately. I gotta think DAL stays within a FG.

I'm kinda liking SF to cover vs. your Bears. Even with all the injuries, one of those aforementioned pride games is something I could see from SF in this one, especially off two humbling road losses. Just can't see a Shanahan team quitting. The Bears are also pretty banged-up themselves.

If the Niners can run on anybody right now, it's CHI, and if SF can control any team's run game right now, it's CHI. (De'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are trending OUT.) I'm thinking a back-to-basics, 23-17ish win for SF behind a strong performance from Isaac Guerendo.

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.